AMB GORDON SONDLAND: Threading the needle on Ukraine, Russia and China

Lets get the preliminaries out of the way. Ukraine has corruption problems and political dysfunction of its own. But in this war, Ukraine is unequivocally the good guy. Russias invasion was unprovoked, unjustified and indefensible. Vladimir Putin is the aggressor. Volodymyr Zelensky is defending his country. Period.

Now lets talk about geopolitical reality. Donald Trump is attempting something far more ambitious than ending the war in Ukraine. He is trying to rearrange the strategic chessboard for the next several decades. Understanding that objective is essential to understanding his seemingly contradictory decisions.

The United States has one truly consequential long-term strategic competitor: China. Russia is dangerous, nuclear-armed and capable of wreaking havoc on its neighbors. But Russia is also a declining power with an economy dependent on natural resources, deteriorating demographics and ambitions that, while unacceptable, are largely regional. China is something else entirely. Beijing seeks to challenge American economic, technological and military leadership globally. It has the industrial capacity, financial resources and strategic patience to pursue that ambition for generations. Chinas challenge is in a different category altogether.

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Here is Trumps dilemma: Europe is not yet strong enough to contain Russia without substantial American support. Despite years of promises, too many NATO allies remain dependent on American military capabilities, intelligence, logistics and leadership. Until Europe can handle Russia largely on its own, the United States must continue devoting enormous resources to European security. Every additional weapons system, dollar and hour of strategic attention consumed by Moscow is a resource unavailable for deterring Beijing or addressing other threats around the world.

Trump is trying to change that equation. His apparent objective is to create conditions under which Russia can eventually become a more normal, economically engaged country rather than a permanent adversary requiring Americas undivided attention. Think of it as strategic triage. In the long run, we want a fully economically engaged Russia that has something meaningful to lose, but still needs a good kick in the ass from time to time to remind Putin and his successors to stay the hell out of Europe. That is a far better outcome than a permanently isolated, militarized Russia driven ever deeper into Chinas embrace.

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That doesnt mean trusting Putin. It means understanding his incentives. Putin wants two things: money and real estate. He wants the economic benefits of international engagement and the territorial advantages of an empire. Trump is uniquely positioned to offer the former while making the latter prohibitively expensive. That is the needle Trump is trying to thread.

But he is threading it while balancing competing global equities: keeping energy prices manageable,

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