Four states vote Tuesday on ballot measures that could reshape girls' and women's sports nationwide
Four states vote Tuesday on ballot measures that could reshape girls' and women's sports nationwide
Four states have measures on Tuesday's ballot that could change who gets to compete in girls' and women's sports — and, in some cases, who gets to use their locker rooms.
Arizona and Nebraska already have laws restricting biological males from competing in female sports. A "yes" vote in either state would expand or strengthen those existing restrictions.
Washington and Colorado are different. Neither currently has the statewide sex-based restrictions proposed by these measures. If voters approve them, both states would establish statewide sex-based restrictions for school sports — a significant change in two traditionally Democratic states.
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So what's at stake Tuesday? Here's a state-by-state breakdown of what the measures would do, what opponents are saying, how supporters are responding and what the betting markets are predicting.
What a yes vote would do: Prohibit students defined as biologically male from competing in girls' K-12 interscholastic sports. Girls seeking to participate would have to provide documentation from a healthcare professional verifying biological sex based on "reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup, or normal endogenously produced testosterone levels."
As it stands, K-12 athletes in Washington can compete based on their gender identity under current eligibility rules, which allowed a boy in Camas, WA, to switch to the girls' team mid-season earlier this year.
What a no vote would do: Keep the current eligibility rules in place, without adding the initiative's new sex-verification requirements.
What opponents say: Organizations such as No Hate in Washington State argue that the initiative would discriminate against transgender students and could subject girls to invasive genital examinations.
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Proponents call the "invasive exam" argument fearmongering, saying that biological sex can be verified as part of a routine sports physical — something high school athletes have been undergoing for years. They also point to a simple cheek swab, which collects DNA from inside the mouth, as another possible way to verify biological sex.
Polymarket prediction at the time of writing: 64% market-implied probability of I-638 passing.
What a yes vote would do: Establish statewide sex-based participation requirements for school sports from K-12 through the college level. Athletes would generally compete on teams matching their biological sex, with exceptions for coed sports and girls joining boys' teams when no equivalent girls' team exists.
The measure covers public, charter and private schools, as well as colleges and universities. It applies to interscholastic and intramural athletics, including school-sponsored club sports.
Proposition 134 defines females as "a person whose biological reproductive system is organized around the production of ova" and males as "a person whose biological reproductive system is organized around the production of sperm."
Unlike Washington's initiative,
