Fox News Power Rankings: South Carolina moves to toss-up

Updated October 29:

Were updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up.

As this weeks Power Rankings , Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.

Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.

New polling has Democratic challenger Annie Andrews and Graham tied at 48%-48%.

The Senate is still a toss-up with six states to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 54 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.

It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.

The first is frustrated with President Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say theyll vote for a Democrat.

Thats what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot and Foxs most recent .

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The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but wont necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.

Thats the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.

How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, wont the Senate fall too?

Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesnt necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.

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The presidents declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House and possibly by many seats.

Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.

The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.

Thats why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.

Well find out in seven days.

In his 11-year political career, President Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the for voter