Reporter's Notebook: Congress dodged a fall shutdown, but the real fight looms

"And all at once, summer collapsed into fall…" – Oscar Wilde

Congress certainly collapsed into fall this year. It lacked the usual mayhem of an imminent government shutdown for the first time in years. The government is usually only funded through September 30, the end of the federal fiscal year. Lawmakers solved that fiscal riddle early.

So the beginning of fall in Congress is usually anything but enjoyable. Others are devouring cobbler, enjoying spiced pumpkin lattes and viewing leaves of amber. When a government shutdown looms, the infernality of summer continues to stew on Capitol Hill. Imagine simmering political temperatures mixed with boiling urban concrete and a soupçon of petrichor. That epitomizes the customary fall tension in the halls of Congress when lawmakers are on the precipice of a shutdown.

But this year is different.

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No shutdown. Thats a good thing, considering last years 43-day shutdown odyssey which crawled from October 1 into mid November. Everything is funded through December 11. So at least members and journalists can enjoy some of those autumnal fall trappings and dash to the pumpkin patch. Thats because we dont know whats going to await everyone for the next spending round in mid-December.

Lawmakers are recovering from the battle scars of last fall. So with the midterms approaching, no one wanted to return to the 2025 contretemps. The sides are willing to tussle over spending. But only after the midterms.

Does that mean a shutdown in December? Unclear.

If Democrats seize control of the House or Senate — or both — that could compel House and Senate Republicans to fund the government the way they want through the fall of 2027 right away. They wont want an interim spending bill which punts things into early next year when Democrats may have power.

That said, if Democrats capture either the House or Senate, they will argue that the voters have spoken and its incumbent on them to decide how to spend taxpayer money next year. Under those scenarios, Democrats will push for a stopgap bill, hoping to tangle with President Trump in the early days of 2027.

The only thing which is known is that President Trump will in fact still be in office come January. This scenario could spark a shut down next year – if not December.

The reason? You still need 60 votes to clear a filibuster (and probably two) in the U.S. Senate. That means Republicans just cant ram through whatever spending package they want. That may work in the House. And the GOP could even test the willingness of Reps. Jared Golden, D-Maine, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., to buck their party and assist passing a GOP-favored spending measure in the lame duck.

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But in the Senate, Republicans will certainly need the cooperation of at least seven Democrats to help them hit the 60 vote threshold. Those Democrats wont be anxious to assist unless they won the majority and think they can apply their stamp on federal spending in the first quarter of next year.

This is the same problem which vexed the Senate during the shutdown of 2025.

The House passed a part