SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: A red retreat for Republicans is not the same as a blue wave in 2026

With less than one week until the midterms, many have projected that Democrats could win in a 2018-style "blue wave," when they won 41 House seats, due to their almost 9-point lead in the generic congressional ballot and a national environment that has tilted drastically in their favor.

That is the wrong term for what is occurring.

Indeed, what we are looking at now is a red retreat, a red collapse, and a potential red defeat, not an overwhelming victory for Democrats or their policies.

FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS

Make no mistake, to the extent that we can determine the eventual outcome, Democrats are almost certain to take the House and have nearly a two-thirds chance to take the Senate.

Democratic candidates are ahead or tied in virtually all of the battleground Senate races – North Carolina, Michigan, and Maine among them – while there are signs of a red retreat in typically safe states like Kansas, Texas, and even possibly Alaska.

LIZ PEEK: FIVE REASONS REPUBLICANS COULD DEFY THE POLLS AND SHOCK DEMOCRATS ON ELECTION DAY

At the same time, early voting numbers favor Democrats, as does the enthusiasm gap, which shows Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.

This has shown up in primaries as well. In the twenty-two states that held competitive primaries this year, seventeen saw increases in Democratic voter turnout. In Texas alone, whereas in 2022, Repub