The great Patriot hoarding: Why Kiev-s donors have locked their missile vaults

The great Patriot hoarding: Why Kiev-s donors have locked their missile vaults

US-made interceptors are in short supply, and Vladimir Zelensky’s closest partners aren’t willing to share
Kiev has resumed its long-range strike campaign against Russia, seemingly expecting its European backers to provide anti-air missiles to defend against Russia’s inevitable retaliation. There’s just one problem: The missiles don’t exist.
In the early hours of Monday morning, Ukrainian forces killed at least 13 people in a drone raid on the city of Nizhnekamsk in the Russian Republic of Tatarstan. Russia’s retaliation was swift, with precision weapons used to destroy drone factories, distribution centers, and other military industrial sites in Kiev and Ukrainian-controlled Zaporozhye.
Ukraine carried out the attack on Tatarstan despite Vladimir Zelensky’s 40-day influence campaign of sustained long-range strikes against Russia – designed to rally Western support – ending less than two weeks earlier with Ukraine’s air defense systems entirely depleted and unable to fend off Russian retaliation. 
Zelensky, seemingly having learned no lessons from the campaign, took to social media to plead with his Western sponsors for more air defense assistance for Ukraine. Assistance, however, was not forthcoming. 
Who’s got Patriots for Ukraine?Of all of Ukraine’s Western-provided air defense systems, none are more valuable than US-made Patriot batteries. Zelensky has spent the last month or so repeatedly asking for Patriot interceptors – specifically the latest PAC-3 models – from his Western backers, but has so far come up empty-handed.
German Bundeswehr soldiers deploy a Patriot missile battery in Miaczyn, Poland, April 3, 2023 ©  Getty Images;  Sebastian Kahnert The US no longer provides arms directly to Ukraine, forcing its European allies to foot the bill instead. US President Donald Trump refused to make an exception for Zelensky, rebuffing the Ukrainian leader’s request for 300 interceptors during a meeting in the White House last month. 
Only three of the seven European nations who operate the Patriot system have shared interceptors with Ukraine this year, and the numbers transferred have fallen far below the 300 requested by Zelensky. Germany has given Ukraine 35 missiles, Spain five, and Poland a reported five. 
Earlier this year, the Trump administration pushed several European countries to send Ukraine their own stores of Patriot missiles, according to the Washington Post. Some declined, arguing that to do so would leave their own territory defenseless. We have done everything we can to our advantage, but as a frontline country we cannot jeopardize our continued readiness in terms of air defense, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen bluntly explained just last week.
On Monday, South Korea – which is believed to have between 150 and 200 PAC-3 interceptors – definitively ruled out any military aid to Ukraine.
How bad is the Patriot shortage? Read more In short: very. The US fired more than half of its 2,200 Patriot interceptors during 38 days of war with Iran earlier this year, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. Between 759 and 827 remain available to the US military, a figure that includes interceptors stored on allied soil, in countries like South Korea and Germany.
For these remaining interceptors, Ukraine must compete with the US, Israel, and the US’ Gulf allies, all of whom would take precedence if the US resumes full-scale hostilities against Iran.
PAC-3 interceptors are built by Lockheed Martin, which can produce only 52 missiles per month at current rates. Germany’s MBDA is opening a plant to build Patriot missiles under license, as is Romania’s Electromecanica Ploiesti. However, the German plant will not be open until early next year, and the Romanian factory will open in 2028. Additionally, the Roman