AMB. GORDON SONDLAND: The Godfather Test -- How Putin turns every attack into a mystery—and gets away with it

In one of the most memorable scenes in "The Godfather," Don Vito Corleone gathers the heads of New Yorks crime families to make peace and secure the return of his son Michael.

"But Im a superstitious man," he tells them.

He then warns that if Michael should suffer some supposedly random misfortune—an implausible suicide, a fatal accident or even a bolt of lightning—"then Im going to blame some of the people in this room…"

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The message was unmistakable: Do not hide an attack behind coincidence, an intermediary or a carefully manufactured lack of proof. Whatever disguise is chosen, I will know where it came from, and I will hold the responsible people accountable.

It is time for NATO and the European Union to adopt what might be called the Godfather Test.

If a drone mysteriously crosses into the territory of an Eastern European country, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.

If a power cable is severed beneath the Baltic Sea, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.

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If a government network is crippled, a weapons factory explodes, a railway system is disrupted or a political figure suddenly becomes the beneficiary of a sophisticated disinformation campaign, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.

Putin can then prove that he was not.

This reverses the way the West has traditionally approached such events. Our democracies are built upon the presumption of innocence. It is one of our most important values, and it must remain inviolate when we administer justice to individuals through our courts.

But Vladimir Putin is not a defendant standing in an American courtroom. Russia is not entitled to the protections of the Bill of Rights, a jury of its peers or an endless international discovery process before the West acts to defend itself.

We have no obligation to presume that the Kremlin is innocent while it is accorded some imaginary form of geopolitical due process. Yet that is effectively what we have been doing. Russia exploits our own system of innocence until guilt is proven, turning one of democracys greatest virtues into a strategic vulnerability.

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The Kremlin understands that Western governments are reluctant to act without evidence that can be publicly disclosed and defended beyond a reasonable doubt. So Russia structures its operations to ensure that such evidence will rarely exist—or cannot be r