HUGH HEWITT: The ghosts of 2006 are stirring — but will they catch the GOP?

As the past is often prologue, much of the GOP is thinking today about the pounding the party took in 2006, the last time a Republican president led his party into the midterms for the second time. Older Republicans try not to let 1986 enter their heads. (The GOP lost eight Senate seats that year.)

 A truth bolt about polling from the Washington Post on Friday gave some hope to the mainstream, especially in states that voted for President Trump in 2024. The Post revealed that its pollsters had made 85,000 calls and sent 50,000 text messages in Kansas seeking to measure support for Senator Roger Marshall, who is being challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton.

While 32% of Kansas Democrats answered the calls and the texts from pollsters, only 12% of the GOP voters did. The Post conceded that these numbers provide "good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates support."

THE SILENT MAJORITY PROBLEM AND WHY CAMPAIGN POLLSTERS KEEP 'FIGHTING THE LAST WAR' ON ELECTIONS

That concession about the reality of polling in 2026 should give every analyst pause before citing "the polls."

There isnt great public data on which either party can rely, but there is history. For the GOP, the year most analogous to 2026 is 2006, and thats scary. (The electorate is so different from 1986 that if it rhymes at all, its a reach.)

In 2006, Republicans under President George W. Bush took a "thumpin" — Ws term for the beat down of the GOP that year — so it is rational to consider the results from 20 years ago as a clear and present danger signal for Republicans.

There are, however, some significant differences between this year and 2006, when the GOP lost a net 6 Senate seats and 30 House seats.

FOX NEWS POLL: COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS WEIGH ON GOP IN MIDTERMS

GDP in Q3 of 2006 was reported at just 1.6% in October of that year. (It was revised up to 2% later.) It is more than twice that this year, clocking in October at a very healthy 3.4%. Republicans can rightly point to an economy in rapid takeoff mode and voters feel that, especially the newly employed.

Inflation in 2006 was at 2.1%, and its at 3.7% now. Gas was $2.25 a gallon then and $4.20 today. (National average in both cases.) Those numbers hurt the GOP candidates across the country.

As do housing costs. In October 2006, the average U.S. interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was approximately 6.36%. Its 7.25% today. Younger voters looking to buy their first home or "move-up" dont know that the era of 3%-4% 30-mortgage rates was an aberration. They just know they missed that window.

The rational voter knows the hike in the cost of gas and the inflation is because President Trump is taking on the fanatics atop the Islamic Republic of Iran, our countrys sworn enemy of 47 years.  Every president since Bill Clinton has warned the ayatollahs that force was on the table if it did not cease its nuclear program, which it has refused to do even after the one night of strikes that obliterated the program in 2025, the strike deemed "Operation Midnight Hammer."

SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: A RED RETREAT FOR REPUBLICANS IS NOT THE SAME AS A BLUE WAVE IN 2026

But, the rogue regime didnt get the message and immediately began

• Share on: