Jewish Dem defections threaten El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race decided by razor-thin margins

Jewish voters could provide the decisive margin in Michigans November Senate election, particularly as some lifelong Democrats say they are prepared to cross party lines and vote for Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

Analysts point to Michigans last U.S. Senate race decided by just 19,006 votes. With estimates placing the states Jewish population between approximately 105,000 and 130,000 adults, those votes could tip the scales in favor of Rogers.

"Republicans made real gains in the most Jewish areas in 2024, and Michigan was no exception," Matthew Knee, a Republican pollster and consultant who serves as chief data officer of Pulse Decision Science, told Fox News Digital.

"Stevens massively outperformed in many Jewish precincts as well," Knee said, commenting on the primary. "Rogers and El-Sayed are both the kinds of candidates that will accelerate this trend. There are only 130,000 Jewish voters in Michigan, but in 2024, Rogers only lost by 19,006 votes, so that can make the difference in that kind of razor-thin environment."

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For generations, voting for the Democratic Party has been part of the identity of many Jewish families across the state, but since El-Sayeds victory, some are moving toward the Republican Party.

In interviews with Fox News Digital, several Jewish Michigan voters said El-Sayeds positions regarding Israel and Zionism have forced them to choose between the liberal values they have supported throughout their lives and what they view as the safety of their children and community.

For many, that prospective vote would not represent a wholesale rejection of the Democratic Party. It would be a break in this single race, a split-ticket vote they once considered unthinkable.

Steve Cohen, a lifelong Michigan resident and self-described "notorious ticket splitter," said the current political climate has made the Senate race especially consequential.

"Weve had attacks on our synagogues and our school buildings where our kids go," Cohen said. "Theres a torrent of activity pushing anti-Israel and anti-Jewish things on our campuses, and that includes every part of the state of Michigan. So, right now, its a little bit scary to be a Jew here."

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"I now feel forced to choose between those liberal values and the safety of my children," said Benji, a lifelong Michigan resident and self-identified liberal whose last name Fox News Digital is withholding for security reasons.

"As a lifelong Jewish liberal, I have advocated for liberal values, including commonsense gun laws, LGBT rights, womens reproductive healthcare, healthcare reform and Black Lives Matter," Benji said.

"El-Sayed may claim to love Jews and the Jewish people, but requiring Jews to be anti-Zionist is a racist purity test and makes his claim ring hollow," he added. "I believe in changing the system from within, but it is no longer safe inside that system for me or for my children."

Stacy, who also asked to withhold her last name, comes from a fifth-generation Democratic Jewish family and has lived in Michigan for 13 years. She h