Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama headline the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship best bets

Golf: the only sport in which the fans care more about the regular season than the playoffs. In fact, most of you thought the 2026 season ended after the final major, the British Open. But, nope. The FedExCup Playoffs start this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

Only the top 69 in the FedExCup standings head to Memphis for the first round of the playoffs because Daniel Berger withdrew. With no cut and massive playoff points at stake, only the top 50 in the standings advance to next week's BMW Championship.

TPC Southwind is a 7,288-yard, par-70 that rewards precise iron play more than mindless bombing. Water is in play throughout; the Bermuda greens can get tricky, and missed approaches bring bogey into the equation quickly. Hence, I'm upweighting ball-striking and course management in my handicap.

My betting strategy for the St. Jude Championship is to wager enough on a golfer's outright to profit 20 units (u), while backing them up with top-10 and 20 bets. That said, let's talk about the guys I'm backing in the first round of the FedExCup Playoffs.

2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (0.61u) at DraftKings and Top-10 with ties +240 (0.5u) at Kalshi

🇳🇴 Viktor Hovland +4356 (0.46u) at Kalshi and Top-10 with ties +275 (0.5u) at BetMGM

🇺🇸 Justin Thomas +5146 (0.39u) at Polymarket and Top-10 with ties +275 (0.5u) at BetMGM

🇰🇷 Tom Kim +5500 (0.36u) at DraftKings and Top-20 with ties +146 (0.75u) at Kalshi

🇺🇸 Rickie Fowler +8481 (0.24u) at Polymarket and Top-20 with ties +189 (0.75u) at Kalshi

Deki has five straight T20-or-better finishes at TPC Southwind, and I cashed on him when he won the 2024 St. Jude Championship at +3000. Furthermore, he has the best course history in this field, according to Betsperts Golfs Ron Klos.

Matsuyama has five consecutive T14-or-better finishes entering the 2026 St. Jude, with a T3 (3M Open), T5 (Rocket Classic) and T7 (Wyndham Championship) in his last three tournaments.

Hideki has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in six consecutive starts, has picked up strokes putting in four of his last five outings, has a world-class short-game and is dialed in with his irons.

Between his skill set and the course history/fit, Matsuyama should have a shorter price than many names ahead of him on the betting board, so Im taking the value.

Im probably missing something, but Hovland shouldnt have worse odds here than Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim, who havent won this season, or in the last couple of seasons for that matter.

Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship at another TPC course (River Highlands) three starts back and nearly won the 2024 St. Jude by finishing T2.

Iron play is a separator at TPC Southwind, and Hovland has gained strokes on approach in all four majors this year and eight straight starts. Viktor is a notoriously crappy chipper, but around-the-green is deemphasized at TPC Southwind.

Regardless, as long as he plays his game this weekend — dialed in with his irons and accurate off-the-tee — Hovland will be in the mix on Sunday.

Okay, so JT is down to +3605 at Polymarket now, and I'm sorry. But I gave out my full betting card for the St. Jude via X/Twitter Monday, and I've only hit o