LEE CARTER: 2026 election could all come down to just one type of voter

For decades, political consultants have been hunting the elusive swing voter.

You know her. She's sitting in a Pennsylvania diner, staring into her coffee, agonizing over whether to vote Republican or Democrat. Pollsters call her. Reporters interview her. Campaigns spend millions trying to win her over.

But maybe we've been looking for the wrong person.

LEE CARTER: THE SUMMER POLLS MISSED THE POINT: VOTERS ARE MOVING — AND THE MIDTERMS BEGIN

What if the most important swing voter in America isn't deciding between and Democrats? What if they're deciding between voting and staying home?

As a pollster, I've spent my career studying why Americans change their minds. But the numbers suggest we should be paying a lot more attention to Americans changing their habits.

EVERYONE IS WATCHING TEXAS AND MICHIGAN. AS A POLLSTER, I KNOW WHERE THE REAL STORY IS

Consider 2024.

According to Pew Research, 12% of voters had skipped both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, despite being eligible to vote.

THE HISPANIC VOTE IS UP FOR GRABS IN 2026. CANDIDATES WHO IGNORE IT WILL LOSE

President Donald Trump won that group by 14 points.

Meanwhile, the people who voted in all three elections split almost evenly: Trump 50%, Harris 48%.

And of all Americans eligible to vote in those three elections, just 41% actually voted in all three.

We're spending fortunes trying to convince people to switch parties while millions can't be counted on to show up in the first place.

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE CONTROL COULD HINGE ON WHETHER THE OLD POLITICAL RULES STILL APPLY

In 2022, Republicans won the House popular vote. But among people who voted in both 2020 and 2022, just 6% switched parties or voted for a third-party candidate in either election.

What changed? Turnout.

MIDTERM HISTORY MASSIVELY FAVORS DEMOCRATS. BUT THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE

Seventy-one percent of Trump's 2020 voters returned in 2022. Only 67% of President Joe Biden's did. Republicans didn't need millions of to change their minds. They benefited because more of their own voters showed up.

Now consider the strange arithmetic of 2026.

FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS

Republicans have made enormous gains in voter registration since 2018. Their registration margin relative to Democrats has improved by eight percentage points in North Carolina, seven in Pennsylvania, five in Nevada and four in Arizona.

These aren't polls. They're actual voter-registration records.

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