LEE CARTER: The summer polls missed the point: Voters are moving — and the midterms begin

If you think you know whos winning the midterms, I have some bad news.

The voters who will decide them are just starting to pay attention.

I say this as someone who loves polls. They tell us what people care about, what theyre worried about and where the political opportunities are.

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But summer horse-race numbers come with a giant asterisk:

The electorate isnt finished yet.

We saw it all summer.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed appeared headed toward a comfortable Democratic Senate primary victory. He won by about a point.

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In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong led David Crowley by roughly 20 points in two polls. Crowley won.

In Minnesota, a public poll had Angie Craig ahead of Peggy Flanagan by two. Flanagan won by nearly 20.

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The lesson isnt that polls are wrong.

Its that voters move.

And now comes the part of the campaign when they start moving.

Labor Day is the unofficial beginning of the election season for the people who dont spend August obsessing over politics.

Which is to say: most people.

They dont know who won the week. They didnt see the viral clip. They arent refreshing the generic ballot. They have never described themselves as "low-propensity voters."

Theyre busy.

And politics has developed a very bad habit of confusing the people who are paying the most attention with the people who will ultimately decide the election.

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We confuse loud with large.

A few thousand furious people can generate an enormous amount of internet.

Millions of people wondering why their grocery bill is still so high can generate almost none.

Then Election Day comes along and counts them exactly the same.

This is why Im less interested in who moved from 47 to 48 this week than in what sits underneath the number.

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Who is certain?

Who is movable?

Who is going to vote?

And which party is actually reaching people who werent already with them?

Because there is a huge difference between making your supporters more enthusiastic and turning more people into your supporters.

Attention feels like momentum. Persuasion creates it.

Which makes what Republicans are doing in Dallas this week fascinating.

For the first time, the GOP is holding a national convention built around a midterm election.

They wanted the stage.

They got it.

Now the question is whether they use it to talk to themselves or to the voters they still need.

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