Major League Baseball's best team can't stop pretending to be the underdogs heading into World Series

The American League Championship Series is tied at two games apiece heading into Sunday evening's game five. After the Tampa Bay Rays offense scuffled against the Cleveland Guardians' pitching staff, they finally broke through in game four thanks to Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Richie Palacios.

Not exactly the most famous names in Major League Baseball, sure, but an example of the Rays' depth and ability to create tough matchups for opposing pitchers up and down the lineup. Game five will pair two of the top ten pitchers in baseball in 2026, by FanGraphs WAR, Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick. Again, not the most well-known names, sure, but based on performance, those two pitchers outperformed highly paid, big-name starters like Zack Wheeler, Framber Valdez, Kevin Gausman or Max Fried.

Given the inherent volatility and randomness of postseason baseball, trying to draw permanent or predictive conclusions from small sample size outcomes is ultimately pointless. But there is one clear pattern that's been obvious for years and become even more apparent in 2026: there are no underdogs in the playoffs. So why is the best team in baseball still acting like one?

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On the other side of the tournament bracket, the Milwaukee Brewers swept the very expensive Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. The Brewers bullpen, behind Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, JoJo Romero, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill, among others, was virtually unhittable. Well, not necessarily unhittable, but impossible to score runs against. Those pitchers allowed just two runs in 15.2 innings of relief in the NLCS, both from Uribe. In 13 innings from Ashby, Hall, Romero and Megill, not one runner who reached base scored. Not one. League-wide, the average left on base rate is roughly 75%. For Milwaukee's bullpen, outside one outing from Uribe, it was 100%.

Offensively, it was more of the same. League average for batting average on balls put in play is around .300. Here's the Milwaukee BABIP from the LCS:

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Hilariously, Garrett Mitchell had a .000 BABIP because his only two hits were series-changing home runs off left-handed starting pitchers, despite having just two homers off lefties in his entire career. Milwaukee's starting pitchers, too, allowed just three earned runs, despite woeful strikeout-walk percentages of 0%, 10% and 10.5%.

Much of that comes down to, again, the randomness that's part of small sample sizes. Weird things happen in three or four games throughout the regular season all the time, without anyone noticing or caring. But with the spotlight on, outcomes become part of some mystical, usually made-up approach or perceived grittiness. The Brewers this postseason have been credited by baseball analysts for their supposed plan to put the ball in play. Make contact, see what happens, instead of just selling out for home runs and striking out instead.

What actually happened? Milwaukee outhomered the Dodgers 7-1 and had the highest "three true outcomes," or strikeouts-walks-home runs, rate of any team in postseason history. Whatever the Brewers' plan a