Taking The L: What We've Been The Most Wrong About Through 1st Quarter Of NFL Season

The first four weeks of the 2026 NFL season were far from predictable. 

A sliver of teams with playoff (and even championship) hopes are winless. The Minnesota Vikings are one of the final three undefeated teams left. Kenneth Walker III looks like the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, and the Los Angeles Rams haven't been as invincible as we thought they might be. 

We technically aren't at the exact quarter mark of the 2026 NFL season, but we're just about there. So, as we prepare for Week 5, we're taking a look back on some of our preseason predictions and eating a slice of humble pie as we share what we were wrong about the most. 

Ralph Vacchiano: I have been high on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert since 2019, when the New York Giants desperately hoped hed come out for the draft, one year before he actually did. I thought he had everything Id want in an NFL quarterback, and I blamed his teammates, coaches and his dysfunctional franchise for why he hasnt already won multiple Super Bowl trophies and MVPs.

This year, though, I thought everything was set up for him. I believed Jim Harbaugh made a brilliant move to bring in Mike McDaniel to work his wizardry at offensive coordinator. I thought they fixed their line, too. By the end of this season, I was sure Herbert and the Chargers would emerge as a sleeper Super Bowl threat.

Um, about that … 

Theyre obviously 0-4, possibly headed towards 0-9 if you look at their schedule, and McDaniel and Herbert look like theyre reading the same book in different languages. There is no cohesion on offense, no answers from the coaches, and all seems lost.

Just a month ago, 10 wins and the playoffs seemed like the floor for this team. I believed that Herbert, who has been floundering the last three seasons, would finally be back on his Hall of Fame track. Now, all I can do is accept that Herbert might be the most overrated quarterback of this generation. I still think the talent is there. But his potential may forever go unfulfilled.

Ben Arthur: The Texans were an easy Super Bowl pick for me ahead of the season. 

Their all-world defense from a year ago lost no significant contributors over the offseason; they arguably got even better (added free-agent safety Reed Blakenship, second-round rookie defensive tackle Kayden McDonald). And I couldnt imagine quarterback C.J. Stroud playing worse than he did in the playoffs last season, when he had seven turnovers in two games. If Stroud could keep Houstons offense on schedule and the defense kept doing its thing, the Texans had a championship formula. 

So its been bizarre to see Stroud and the Texans defense essentially switch places in their stunning 0-4 start: the quarterback play has been fine — great at times — but the defense has regressed dramatically. Houston ranks 20th in yards allowed and 26th in points allowed through four games. The team has been particularly bad defending the pass, ranking 28th with 260.0 passing yards allowed per game. 

Stroud has shown very real signs of growth, and I think the defense will be fine after head coach DeMeco Ryans took back defensive play-calling responsibilities this week. But I think the hole theyve dug for themselves is too big to overcome. The Jaguars are positioned to run away with the AFC South, and there will be some very good teams fighting for the three wild-card spots in the AFC.

Eric D. Williams: I thought the unusual pairing between the old-school approach of veteran head coach Jim Harbaugh and the new-school approach of quirky offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel would work, despite their differing personalities. Instead, through the first four weeks, its been an ineffective combo, with Harbaugh having to answer questions about firing his offensive coordinator.

The uber-talented Justin Herbert is playing his worst football in his seven-year NFL career. L.A.s offense l