Brazil picks its path: What-s at stake in the election

Brazil picks its path: What-s at stake in the election

Accusations of foul play are flying as Lula takes on Bolsonaro in a battle with global consequences for Latin America and the BRICS group
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is once again fighting for his political future, in a runoff election against Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. After a dirty campaign, voters will decide on Sunday whether Brazil maintains its leftward trajectory or lurches to the right.
Bolsonaro defeated Lula in the first round of this year’s presidential election, beating the incumbent left-winger by 47.03% to 45.16% on October 5. With neither candidate winning an outright majority, ten runners-up were eliminated and a runoff called for October 25.
Who are the candidates? Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters during a campaign rally in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 11, 2026 ©  Getty Images;  Isabella Finholdt Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, more commonly referred to as ‘Lula’, has been a mainstay in Brazilian politics since the 1980s. After serving two terms as president from 2003 to 2011, he was sentenced to nine years in prison in 2017 for alleged involvement in a corruption and money laundering scheme within the state-run oil company Petrobras.
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court struck down his conviction in 2021, and Lula returned to politics the following year, defeating Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of just 0.11%. In power, Lula has increased government spending to tackle poverty, handed subsidies to industry, and hiked taxes on the wealthy. Meanwhile, his government has deepened trade and diplomatic ties with Russia, China, and the rest of the BRICS group, while criticizing US intervention in Latin America.
Brazil, he said in a speech at the UN General Assembly last month, does not fit into anyone’s back yard.
Flavio Bolsonaro holds a campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 16, 2026 ©  Getty Images;  Fabio Teixeira A senator since 2019, Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who was placed under house arrest last year after the Supreme Federal Court found him guilty of attempting to overturn his 2022 loss to Lula. A social conservative, Flavio Bolsonaro has promised to slash government spending, deregulate industry, crack down on crime, and rein in the power of the judiciary. If elected, he has promised to pursue amnesty for his father.
Bolsonaro favors closer relations with the US, and has said he would join US President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Latin American drug cartels. He has signaled he would consider leaving BRICS, accusing the organization of provoking the United States by proposing that the dollar should no longer be the currency for international transactions.
Should Bolsonaro win, he would fall into a growing camp of right-wing leaders in Latin America, including Presidents Javier Milei of Argentina, Abelardo de la Espriella of Colombia, Jose Antonio Kast of Chile, and Nayib Bukele of El Salvador.
What are the key issues?Crime is the dominant issue in this election, with 28% of respondents telling CNN Brazil that violence is the main problem facing the country. Bolsonaro, who has pledged to designate drug trafficking gangs as terrorists, relax restrictions on police violence, and build a network of high-security prisons modeled on El Salvador’s CECOT facility, enjoys a 10-point polling advantage over Lula on this issue, according to a Bloomberg survey.
CNN Brazil identified corruption as the second issue atop voters’ list of concerns. Bolsonaro also leads Lula on fighting corruption, according to Bloomberg, albeit by a smaller margin of 4%.
Bolsonaro is currently a subject in two money laundering probes, but he has fired off corruption accusations at Lula, citing the involvement of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes in one of these investigations. Moraes, a close political ally of Lula and the man responsible for jail