PGA TOUR 2026: BMW Championship best bets at Bellerive Country Club for the FedExCup Playoffs

We are down to 50 golfers as the second round of the 2026 FedExCup Playoffs heads to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, for the BMW Championship. After the BMW, the top 30 players of the FedExCup standings advance to East Lake for next week's TOUR Championship.

Bellerive is a long par-70 (7,448 yards) with bentgrass greens that has hosted a few majors, most recently the 2018 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. With rain forecasted to soften conditions even further, expect a birdie-fest where elite driving and dialed-in iron play will determine the winner.

got the monkey off his back by winning his second tournament this year — his first since the 2026 season opener — at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scottie absolutely dummied the field, winning the St. Jude by eight strokes, and he was the only guy to shoot double-digit under par.

With that in mind, I'd understand if you bet in the "Winner without Scottie Scheffler" markets. I wouldn't be shocked if Scottie wins the BMW and the TOUR Championship next week, but I just can't bet him at +300 or lower. Instead, I'm wasting 2.19 units (u) on outrights and 2.5u on placement bets on the losers below.

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

🇺🇸 Chris Gotterup +3000 (0.67u) and Top-10 with ties +189 (0.75u), both at Kalshi

🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3000 at FanDuel (0.67u) and Top-10 with ties +198 at Kalshi (0.75u)

🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa +3800 at DraftKings (0.53u) and Top-10 with ties +265 at Kalshi (0.5u)

🇺🇸 Michael Thorbjornsen +5500 at BetMGM (0.36u) and Top-10 with ties +312 (0.5u), both at Kalshi

One of Gotterup's three wins this season, and his most recent, the John Deere Classic, was at another Midwest course with bentgrass greens. His other two wins this year were the Sony Open in Hawaii and the WM Phoenix Open in the desert, and his breakthrough win last season was the Genesis Scottish Open. I.e., Gotterup's game travels well.

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That said, it doesn't make sense why Gotterup has worse odds than Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Åberg, none of whom have won this year. Gotterup is one of 14 golfers who made the cut at every major this season, and he ranks fifth in my model at Betsperts Golf, ahead of those three guys.

Bellerive is a driver-heavy course, and Gotterup ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Seven of the top-10 at the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive ranked in the top-10 of SG: Ball-Striking (driving and approach) that week, and Gotterup is fourth in this field in ball-striking over the last 24 rounds.

The bottom line is Matsuyamas odds are too long — tied for the 11th at FanDuel — for how well he is playing. My guy, Hideki, made me money again last week by finishing T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has six consecutive T14-or-better finishes, including four straight T7s or better.

Also, I want to bet a golfer who is lighting it up because the weather forecast is predicting rain in St. Louis this week, which will make Bellerive softer and easier, aka, more birdies. Well, Matsuyama leads this field in birdie-or-better rate over the last 24 rounds, according to Betsperts Golf.

Furthermore, he ranks second in this field for ball-striking over the last 12 rounds but 31st in short-game (chipping and putting), per Betsperts Golf. Im more focused on his good ball-striking because thats more predictive and Hideki has one of the best short-games in the world.

Meaning, as long as Matsuyama keeps pounding fairw