Why Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings will shock Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever tonight

If you like the WNBA, and judging by the page views, the Fox News audience LOVES womens basketball, then Im sure youre pumped about the red-hot Indiana Fever (24-12) facing the slumping Dallas Wings (20-16) Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.

is 7-2 straight up (SU) and 5-4 against the spread (ATS) post-All-Star break with a five-game winning streak. Dallas, on the other hand, is 2-7 SU and ATS since the WNBA All-Star Game with losses in five of its past six games and six straight non-covers.

The Fever-Wings season series is tied 1-1 SU and ATS. Indiana beat Dallas 98-87 this past Friday to even the season series after the Wings beat the Fever 107-104 in their season openers.

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Dallas was up 3 points heading into the fourth quarter last week despite not having its leading rebounder and leader in PER, starting C Jessica Shepard. In their first Fever-Wings meeting this year, Shepard had game-highs in rebounds (9) and assists (9).

Indiana is due for a loss, and its tough beating a team twice in a short span. With that in mind, here are more reasons why Im taking the points with Dallas in this game.

This is a controversial take in these parts, and I dont get why, but Paige Bueckers is better than Caitlin Clark. Both were No. 1 overall picks, won WNBA Rookie of the Year, and average nearly 20 points per game (PPG).

Yet, Bueckers has a higher career PER (22.0-19.7) and on/off rating (+6.7 vs. +1.1), shoots better from everywhere on the floor and commits roughly three fewer turnovers per game (5.2-2.1).

The Wings suffered a major blow this week with 2026 No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd undergoing season-ending arthroscopic surgery on her knee. Fudd leads the team in on/off net rating and 3-pointers made per game.

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However, that should increase Bueckers usage rate, which isnt a bad thing. She is scoring 22.5 PPG on 51.5% shooting in six career meetings with the Fever.

Also, the home/road scoring and shooting splits for these teams are massive, and the market isnt giving Dallas a big enough boost for home-court advantage. The Wings have a +6.4 margin of victory at home and -2.1 on the road. Indy has a +8.7 margin of victory at home and a +2.8 margin of victory on the road.

Furthermore, Indiana is much better at getting to the charity stripe, but Dallas is third in defensive FT/FGA rate, and teams tend to get a better whistle at home. The Wings got to the foul line more in both games vs. the Fever this season.

Meanwhile, and this is even truer in the WNBA, the "battle for possessions" is the most important thing in high-level basketball, and Dallas has a better turnover rate on both ends of the floor.

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Lastly, the Wings have a rest edge with their last game being Monday and Indianas previous game being Tuesday. Indy has played twice since its last game vs. Dallas, which has just played once since this past Friday, and the Fever are 4-8 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

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