Fox News Poll: Its a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton

Weeks before , Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a photo finish for the Lone Star States U.S. Senate seat.

This analysis, released Thursday, is among likely voters, unless otherwise noted.

Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxtons is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%). Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%).

The GOP also has an enthusiasm gap. More MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterms (64% vs. 50%) and certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%). By contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote.

Overall, Texas likely voters split on control of the : 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer the Democrats in power versus 1% of Democrats crossing over to pick the GOP.

All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News Poll among Texas likely voters (so no comparisons are available). These matchup results are within the margin of sampling error.

Among the larger sample of registered voters, Talaricos advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error). Thats up from a 3-point edge in July.

GOP ambivalence is further reflected in Senate preferences because non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%). The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico.

Fully 100% of DSA and 98% of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico, and slightly more of his backers are certain of their support (89%) than Paxton backers (85%).

In addition, Talarico also gets strong backing from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under age 35 (62%).

Paxtons best groups are White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters ages 65 and over (55%).

Both candidates face ideological concerns. Roughly equal numbers are concerned Talarico is too liberal on the issues (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%).

In 2024, President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. Today, his job rating is underwater by 11 points: 44% approve vs. 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those disapproving still back Paxton compared to 9% of Trump approvers backing Talarico.

Economic hardships continue to dominate the narrative. Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their vote, and this is another problem for the Republicans because twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially (35%) as getting ahead (16%). Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. Those holding steady (48%), the largest group, narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.

Nearly half say (48%) and immigration (47%) will be extremely important to their vote, while one-third say the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%).

Talarico holds wide leads among those saying the cost of living (Talarico +19), artificial intelligence (+18) and Trump (+6) will be ex