Fox News Poll: Turek, Hinson in close Iowa Senate race

Economic concerns and party loyalty are key factors shaping Iowas matchup.

A Fox News statewide survey of likely voters finds Democrat Josh Turek with a two-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47%, well within the margin of error.

Among registered voters, Turek is ahead by 4 points, 50% to 46%. That also falls within the range of sampling error and has been unchanged since June.

The analysis below is based on likely .

Democrats are more unified behind state representative Turek (96%) than Republicans are of current Congresswoman Hinson (87%). Independents favor Turek by two-to-one, and 10% of Republicans back him. Its Iowas partisan structure that keeps the race tight, as more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats.

Iowa voters are split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control and 48% favor Republican. With those numbers nearly matching the Senate matchup, both candidates are performing close to their partys ceiling.

Turek is preferred by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents.

Hinson is up by 7 points among men, 6 points among those without a college degree, 14 points among rural voters, and 41 points among White evangelical Christians. 

Economic pressure influences the contest. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially. That share has risen to 4 in 10 today, and they back Turek by a 38-point margin. Meanwhile, those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson (by 14 and 53 points respectively).

In addition, 6 in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision. That outpaces other top issues, like President (43% extremely), immigration (39% extremely), and AI technology (27% extremely).

Turek has the advantage among voters who say the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology are each extremely important to their vote, while voters prioritizing immigration favor Hinson.

Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024. Today, thats how many Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president (57%), while far fewer, 42%, approve.

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The presidents ratings are only part of Hinsons challenge. While 42% view her positively, 50% have an unfavorable view, including nearly 4 in 10 who are "strongly" unfavorable. In contrast, Tureks ratings are net positive: 48% favorable to 40% unfavorable (24% "strongly" unfavorable).

By a 9-point margin, more voters are concerned Hinson is too close to Trump than are worried Tureks views are too liberal (52% vs. 43%). Among those "extremely" concerned, that gap widens to 14 points: 36% say Hinson is too tied to Trump, while 22% say Turek is too liberal.

More of Tureks backers are certain of their choice: 88% are committed to him compared to 77% fo